Although the essay was thought-provoking, I really can’t see any of the three development models he mentions being completely phased out in the future. All three of them have been around since the beginning of computing, at one size or another, and they’ve waxed and waned over time as you’d expect them to.
I think the newfound popularity of open source software will provide a strong counter to Microsoft’s bid for complete development dominance, yet allow for other vendors to compete in the commercial software market. Shareware and independant software companies are alive and well on other platforms besides Wintel PCs, and I think they’ll remain so.
It’s hard to say what things will be like nearly 30 years in the future. I am in the computer field, after all, which is notorious for changing rapidly. I don’t know if I want to do programming for the rest of my life; it might be fun to, at some point in the future, get an advanced degree and teach at a college. In any case, I plan to be doing the things I enjoy, whatever that might be at the time.
Thirty years into the future is too far to make a decision now. At this point I envision myself programming or at least being in a technical field, but that could all change. 20 years ago the internet wasn’t even around and now people have built entire companies around it.