http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/ A computer programmer's commentary on news, Linux, programming, music, web design, trivia, humor, usability and whatever else strikes his fancy at the time. Tue, 22 May 2012 23:40:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-37507 dan Fri, 17 Nov 2006 14:29:42 +0000 http://dan.hersam.com/archives/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather#comment-37507 Having a 50% chance of rain is often referring to the potential for rain in a large region. It rarely rains everywhere, so many forecasters estimate that 50% of the area will get rain and the other won't. That is far easier to measure than the probability of rain, although it still refers to the likelihood of you being rained on. Having a 50% chance of rain is often referring to the potential for rain in a large region. It rarely rains everywhere, so many forecasters estimate that 50% of the area will get rain and the other won’t. That is far easier to measure than the probability of rain, although it still refers to the likelihood of you being rained on.

]]> http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-37191 DaveH Thu, 16 Nov 2006 17:46:58 +0000 http://dan.hersam.com/archives/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather#comment-37191 How/Where did you do the research that led you to your conclusion? It seems a tricky calculation to determine when one is correct in saying there's a 50 percent chance of rain, no? If I say that, and it rains, does that count as correct or incorrect? And if I say 80 percent chance of rain? ... I think I just take weather predictions and reports as general estimations -- will I freeze/burn, be blown away, drown, or be buried or washed away. Other than that, in most of our everyday lives, how much do we truly depend on the weather? The walk from the car to the office, maybe. I keep an umbrella in my car and in my bag, and try to roll with the punches, I guess. How/Where did you do the research that led you to your conclusion? It seems a tricky calculation to determine when one is correct in saying there’s a 50 percent chance of rain, no? If I say that, and it rains, does that count as correct or incorrect? And if I say 80 percent chance of rain? … I think I just take weather predictions and reports as general estimations — will I freeze/burn, be blown away, drown, or be buried or washed away. Other than that, in most of our everyday lives, how much do we truly depend on the weather? The walk from the car to the office, maybe. I keep an umbrella in my car and in my bag, and try to roll with the punches, I guess.

]]> http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-36360 dan Mon, 13 Nov 2006 14:58:22 +0000 http://dan.hersam.com/archives/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather#comment-36360 Ben: If the weather forecaster says there is a 50% chance of rain, then they will be correct six to eight times out of ten and you have a 50% chance of getting rained on. Of the other two to four times that they're wrong, you probably won't get rained on because they try to err on the side of saying it will rain. Ben: If the weather forecaster says there is a 50% chance of rain, then they will be correct six to eight times out of ten and you have a 50% chance of getting rained on. Of the other two to four times that they’re wrong, you probably won’t get rained on because they try to err on the side of saying it will rain.

]]> http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-36213 Ben Mon, 13 Nov 2006 02:37:27 +0000 http://dan.hersam.com/archives/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather#comment-36213 For awhile I thought you weren't gonna help me out. I don't get on much just because I'm always so busy. I just checked today and am glad to see you've helped me out. Sorry about the voicemail. I am mostly amazed at how the accuracy of the weather is in the 60-80% range. Does that mean if there is a fifty percent chance of rain, there really is between a 35 and 65 percent chance? If that is the case I might as well just trust my aching knee. Thanks again for the research!! For awhile I thought you weren’t gonna help me out. I don’t get on much just because I’m always so busy. I just checked today and am glad to see you’ve helped me out. Sorry about the voicemail. I am mostly amazed at how the accuracy of the weather is in the 60-80% range. Does that mean if there is a fifty percent chance of rain, there really is between a 35 and 65 percent chance? If that is the case I might as well just trust my aching knee. Thanks again for the research!!

]]> http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-33083 dan Fri, 03 Nov 2006 14:35:22 +0000 http://dan.hersam.com/archives/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather#comment-33083 It was quite simple actually because it wasn't a cell phone (I don't have one) it was through Vonage. You get a wav file of voice mails by e-mail. It was quite simple actually because it wasn’t a cell phone (I don’t have one) it was through Vonage. You get a wav file of voice mails by e-mail.

]]> http://dan.hersam.com/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-32970 whaleman Fri, 03 Nov 2006 06:17:47 +0000 http://dan.hersam.com/archives/2006/11/01/the-percentages-in-weather#comment-32970 I am curious how you downloaded the voicemail from your cell phone. I was not aware that you could do that. I am curious how you downloaded the voicemail from your cell phone. I was not aware that you could do that.

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